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Prediction Markets

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Mark Spence Mark Spence
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Polymarket and Kalshi have become the faces of Prediction Markets. What are these prediction markets and are they a blessing or a curse?
Please put all your questions and comments regarding prediction markets here.

04/17/2026 at 3:12 pm
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Swordfish Swordfish
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That is why I do not buy the “it’s just prediction” argument. The incentives are closer to extraction than insight.

05/20/2026 at 12:25 pm
Mark Spence Mark Spence
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Part 3 of our little theory regarding prediction markets and how legit they really are.

How to Win Prediction Markets #3: Be the Market

05/20/2026 at 3:46 pm
pokerface pokerface
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When a platform becomes a place where rumor, privilege, and timing all pay, integrity is already on life support.

05/20/2026 at 3:56 pm
Josh04 Josh04
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I would trust a coin toss more than a market full of politically connected bettors pretending to be neutral observers.

05/20/2026 at 5:56 pm
daniel daniel
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Prediction markets invite a strange moral inversion: the better your access to power, the more “accurate” you look.

05/20/2026 at 7:56 pm
daniel daniel
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Right, a broken clock is still right twice a day. But that does not mean you should build a financial product around it.

05/20/2026 at 10:56 pm
Tati_8 Tati_8
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The big players know this. They sell the image of objectivity while quietly depending on the chaos that makes manipulation profitable.

05/21/2026 at 10:56 am
Olliphant Olliphant
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And if the same names keep appearing around politics, media, and the market itself, people are right to ask whose interests are really being priced.

05/21/2026 at 12:57 pm
Swordfish Swordfish
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The answer is usually not the public’s.

05/21/2026 at 2:57 pm
pokerface pokerface
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There is also something bleak about watching political shocks turned into trading opportunities within minutes. It feels like the market has no shame.

05/22/2026 at 11:23 am
Josh04 Josh04
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Shame requires boundaries. These platforms seem built to erase them.

05/22/2026 at 12:23 pm
daniel daniel
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I think the most honest description is that prediction markets are socially licensed speculation wrapped in a language of truth.

05/22/2026 at 4:23 pm
daniel daniel
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Nicely put. They are casinos with spreadsheets and a moral alibi.

05/23/2026 at 1:24 pm
Tati_8 Tati_8
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And the ordinary user is the last person to know when the deck is stacked.

05/23/2026 at 3:24 pm
Olliphant Olliphant
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That is why the integrity question never goes away. If there is any connection between operators, politicians, and insiders, trust dies immediately.

05/23/2026 at 8:24 pm
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