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Prediction Markets

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Mark Spence Mark Spence
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Polymarket and Kalshi have become the faces of Prediction Markets. What are these prediction markets and are they a blessing or a curse?
Please put all your questions and comments regarding prediction markets here.

04/17/2026 at 3:12 pm
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Swordfish Swordfish
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Especially when the family name of a president’s son keeps surfacing in conversations around the biggest players. That kind of association poisons the whole space, fair or not.

05/24/2026 at 11:24 am
pokerface pokerface
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Even the defenders of prediction markets sound defensive now. They spend more time explaining away controversies than explaining the product.

05/24/2026 at 4:38 pm
Josh04 Josh04
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Because the product is not clean. It relies on trust it has not earned.

05/24/2026 at 6:38 pm
daniel daniel
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And the market participants are not all sophisticated quants. Some are just opportunists chasing rumors with no regard for the social damage.

05/25/2026 at 11:38 am
daniel daniel
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That social damage is the part people ignore. Public life becomes a feedstock for wagers, and everyone is nudged to become a spectator to their own decline.

05/25/2026 at 3:39 pm
Tati_8 Tati_8
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Then when someone questions it, they are told they “do not understand markets.” No, we understand the moral hazard perfectly.

05/25/2026 at 6:39 pm
Swordfish Swordfish
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And concentration of information usually means concentration of power. The rest of us get noise.

05/26/2026 at 11:44 am
pokerface pokerface
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The whole industry feels like it is asking for forgiveness after the fact rather than earning trust beforehand.

05/26/2026 at 1:47 pm
Josh04 Josh04
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Which is why every scandal matters. It is not a one-off; it confirms the basic suspicion.

05/27/2026 at 10:25 am
daniel daniel
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If the platforms were serious about integrity, they would slow down, narrow the markets, and stop pretending every crisis is a tradable asset.

05/28/2026 at 2:39 pm
daniel daniel
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They will not do that, because crisis is the business model.

05/28/2026 at 2:45 pm
Tati_8 Tati_8
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That is what makes the social critique so strong. The market depends on people treating uncertainty as a monetizable weapon.

05/29/2026 at 11:23 am
Olliphant Olliphant
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The economic issue is simple too: a system built on exploiting informational imbalance will always drift toward concentration, not fairness.

05/29/2026 at 12:31 pm
Swordfish Swordfish
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I am still struck by how often defenders talk about “wisdom of crowds” while the actual crowd seems irrelevant. The real winners are usually the ones closest to the source.

05/29/2026 at 4:17 pm
pokerface pokerface
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Or closest to the rules. Or closest to power. Or closest to the people shaping the narrative.

05/29/2026 at 4:36 pm
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